Market Seasonality, Momentum & Goals for 2023
And a little Christmas gift from your favorite Substacker
John had always been passionate about trading, but for years he struggled to find consistency and success in the market. Despite countless hours of research and studying different strategies, he always seemed to fall short of his goals. Frustrated and disheartened, John began to feel like he was lost in his trading journey.
That was until he decided to focus on setting up specific and measurable goals for himself. He realized he had been trying to do too much at once and wasn't progressing because he didn't have a clear direction. By setting specific goals and breaking them down into smaller, more achievable tasks, John could regain control and focus on his trading.
Over time, John's consistency and success improved as he worked towards his goals. He found that having a clear set of objectives helped him to stay motivated and on track, even when faced with challenges and setbacks. Today, John is a successful trader thanks to his commitment to setting and working towards specific goals.
Are you John?
Good evening Traders,
Welcome to the 250 new traders who joined us this week; I appreciate you taking the time to read my work. For those who might have missed it, I put together a thread of all my threads during 2022. I recommend you go through it if you’re not familiar with my style of trading. And yes - I came back to Twitter.
I hope you all had a great Christmas and enjoyed some well-deserved time off. In case you’re not happy with what Santa brought you, I have a little something for you:
Apex runs the biggest promotion: 90% OFF Any Size Evaluation Account!!
Super Sale starts now and ends on Tuesday 01/03/23 at 11:59 PM ET. This is the best moment to try it out for the lowest price on the market right now.
Alright, let’s get back to business.
Market seasonality
Two weeks ago, I discussed the “Christmas rally”. Is this thing real? The average return on $NQ in December since 2002 is actually -0.25% (!).
Before I share the detailed results, here's the data that I used:
Source: YahooFinance
Ticker: NQ=F
Return: calculated as the close of the last day of Dec minus the open of the first day of Dec, divided by the close of the last day of Dec
Some stats:
57% (12/21) of the months have positive returns
43% (9/21) of the months have negative returns
2002 and 2018 had negative double digits returns
2022 is on track to become the third-worst December since 2002
I encourage you to build your statistics rather than believing everything we can read on Twitter/Substack.
Interesting to note that we’re much lower than the -4.40% from two weeks ago. Momentum…
Momentum
Last week I was wondering what happens in January. Are there any Higher Timeframes patterns? As usual, I had no freaking idea, so I figured out I’d ask my buddy, Alfred. For those new here, Alfred is my trading assistant. He works more than 40h a week, and I don’t pay him. I sometimes get mad at him, but you don’t have to worry about human conditions because it’s a bot.
Since 2001, the average return in January (excluding the first day of the month) is c. 0%. The standard deviation is (high) c. 7%.
The following is interesting: When we start the month in the red, it tends to persist throughout the rest of January.
I haven’t run this test in other months, but I’ll probably do it soon. As usual, check what I say rather than just believing it.
If you don't know where to start, you can use ChatGPT to help you with the programming part. Here’s an example for you:
Goals
We’re getting to the end of the year, and you know what that means: goals! Yay, I don’t have to do it with a boss now, just me, myself, and I.
Main goals 2023
80% of my volume traded through algo (c. 30% now, 0% last Jan) - keep my journaling routine
Start LT stocks portfolio with 10% of any winning month
5,000 subscribers (1,200ish now, 0 last Jan). I want this Substack to become a trusted place for people who want to start with Trading.
Keep cooking more
8k Daily steps (6 now)
A secret goal of mine is to take one of the FTMO’s leaderboard places with one of my bots.
What are your goals?
I hope you enjoyed this article - Please consider sharing it on Twitter/Discord.
- Retail
Useful links
📝Previous articles: read here
Twitter: @itsonlymoney12
📩 retailcapital9@gmail.com