Thanks for all the likes and shares last week, it means a lot.
Another week. Another opportunity. Whether it will be an opportunity to succeed or fail, is up to you, and you only.
Even though we all want overnight success, it doesn’t happen like this. Today’s P&L doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things. The next trade’s outcome doesn’t matter either. Each small step is part of The Infinite Game.
“Finite players play to beat the people around them. Infinite players play to be better than themselves.” –Simon Sinek, The Infinite Game
Last week I told you that I was recording my screen and making a series of videos for some prop firm accounts that I’m passing now, with the goal to withdraw 10k from each of them.
This is my progress so far. I had 10 people reaching out to say they were interested, this is not enough for me to learn how to do video editing, but I’ll keep talking about it here to show the progress and hopefully give you some motivation.
With this daily letter, I hope to help you frame your process. If you want more advice from me, I now offer a 1-on-1 coaching service (scalping, execution, preparation, python).
I will take max 3 per week, but ideally, I would prefer to work on the long term with 1/2 highly motivated traders.
If you’re tired of trading alone and want some feedback, I’d be happy to help.
Now, on to today’s piece. What’s happening this week?
Economic Calendar
All times are NY time, and I only list news that is supposed to move the market.
Monday: nothing important
Tuesday: ZEW (Europe) at 5 AM, US Retail Sales & Can Inflation at 830 AM, Fed Kashkari at 11 AM.
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes at 2 PM
Thursday: Jobless claim at 830 AM
Friday: Europe Core Inflation at 5 AM
Earnings shouldn’t move the market either.
All in all, it should be a pretty soft week, nothing abnormal for the middle of August. If you look at the daily NQ chart, we had 8 out of the last 10 days red, with one doji and one green day. *I’m counting today as red *so far**.
Do you know when this happened for the last time?
Since nothing big is happening is week, let’s dive into Price Action and orderflow.
Let’s start with a high-level view of the Summer on the 4 major US indexes.
As you can see, we’re back to square 1 on most indexes. NQ (blue) started strong with RTY, but is now the only one in the red since July. ES (orange) is holding at 1%.
If we look at some of the top stocks from QQQ 0.00%↑, we observe that the correction continues.
I think 14,853 is inevitable for this week on NQ, and if we don’t have a strong reaction (daily close above), 14,256 will come in the coming days. 14,256 is just an 11% correction from the yearly highs at 16k. Something interesting to have would be ‘What is the frequency of 10%+ correction in the market?’.
ES Daily
Imo, as long as we remain below 4,500, there is no need to be too optimistic for the US indexes. I will also monitor the reaction to the recent selling activity at 4,470. Besides that, I’m looking at the below levels on ES.
On ES, we see from last Friday the sellers that have been massively absorbed at 4470-72.
NQ Daily
The current pattern let me think of some upcoming liquidity grabbing (to the downside). A good flush to 14,500 is on the table.
Here are the levels I’m looking at for the week. 15,146 is not something I’m looking at right now, but more to play later in the week, would we have a daily close below/above it, to play the retest during RTH.
So far, the overnight action has been pretty classic.
We ran through the prior weekly lows to grab some stops and we started to grind back up. Again, another important level to monitor during the intraday action.
Based on Friday’s action, I think we have a pretty clear range in play. I’ll be looking to short above the red area (200 ish) and long below the green area until one is broken.
SHILL CORNER
I’ll take suggestions for the title of this daily newsletter. I want something that I can use every day. If you have any cool ideas… :)
Have a great Monday.
I love you all.
— RC
PS: If you read it thus far and didn’t like or share, it’s bad karma. I don’t make the rules.
PPS: Substack has still not fixed the issue with the archives. I don’t know what to do and they are not really helping. It’s been more than two weeks…
Love your work buddy - thank you.
Thanks Rc always a joy to read this!