Ok ok… maybe I got a bit too excited. BUT, yesterday was fun! I’m so happy with my progress over the last 12 months. I really came from dark places, but now I see the light. It’s a crazy journey. The one thing I can tell you, the simplest advice is the best.
I can’t believe I only took 6 trades yesterday. Down from 100+ trades a day not so long ago. I miss it, but my mental is a million times better. I sleep better, I’m less stressed, and I’m sure that I’ll increase my $ in the long run.
I gave live guidance during the day yesterday on my Twitter. I hope it helped some of you.
If you struggle with live execution or want to improve your strategy, I’m available for coaching, with 3 seats left. We will cover your strategy, execution, risk management & daily prep. Anything is possible. A one hour call can change a lot of things, especially if you’re in a negative mindset. Additionally, every month, the highest donation here will get a 30 minute 1-on-1 with me.
LAST DAY limited 90% APEX PROMO - Great time to buy a couple of $50k evals for less than $30 (you can buy up to 20).
Now, on to today’s piece.
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First, let’s look at the daily ES.
$ES
We have a LOT of sellers. This has been like this for most of August now, with prices only down c. 100 pts. Yesterday, most of the selling was in the 4500 area and we failed to break below the previous day's low (PDL). The overnight session (so far) is up only. It’s interesting to note the ‘triple’ distribution with the POC at 4513 and the other HVNs at 4504 and 4489. I think 4496 is a key level on $ES.
NQ is painting a similar story.
$NQ
We closed below the PDL and have a weird volume profile. There’s a clear shelf at 15,300, with the POC slightly below and some non-negligible buying activity at the LOD. 15,325-35 is the key area that I observe from this chart. IMO it’s a good shorting spot if PA aligns in this area.
Something key to help you
If you struggled yesterday, I’ll try to make things simpler for you. We went up in the overnight session until Europe opened where we had a couple of liquidations. Then, it was a slow drift down. We opened right in the red, not a tick above the RTH open. We went down for the first half hour without any bounce. When this happens. there is sometimes a bounce at 10 AM. Not this time. We kept going down. Same at 10:30 AM after IB was formed. Why would you look for long in this environment? It makes no sense. There’s been a nice bounce shortly after Europe closed, bounce that has been annihilated in the power hour.
Look at the above chart and think deeply. Imagine the emotions of the different players involved in the battle. You have to feel it.
On a side note, we only went down 1% yesterday. VIX pushed 18+ before quickly going back to the high 15s, which was kind of weird. We will have 3%+ down days. If you struggled yesterday, I highly encourage you to work more on yourself. It’s ok to struggle, but not to lose too much. Yesterday was nothing. Invest in yourself, for the long run.
I’m adding the LT view of $NQ in the above chart (ES below). We broke the trendline more significantly than in April and the end of the week will be interesting to see if we reclaim it or not on the higher time frame.
London open
A good old green dildo. Nothing to see here.
I’ve been recording one of my challenge accounts lately with some (simple) editing. The goal is to take this account to 10k to withdraw to show you the scalping process. Would there be interest in that?
Obviously, with CPI coming this morning, I’m coming flat into the event to see what the market will do. I don’t know what it will do, and I don’t really care. Take yesterday, it was much easier to short the break of 15,250 than shorting 15,400 early in the premarket session. Why? Because you had more information at 15,250ish. We want a small piece of the cake. Not the whole cake. Nonetheless, I’ll be looking at 14,970, 15,330, and 14775.
Have a great day. Be careful.
— RC
LAST DAY limited 90% APEX PROMO - Great time to buy a couple of $50k evals for less than $30 (you can buy up to 20).
Agree with hv. Always a great read and recording would be very interesting.
Nice article RC, as always. The challenge acc recording is a great idea 🫡